Research trip to the International Monetary Fund Meetings (IMF) in Bangkok 2026

Our emerging markets fixed income team recently completed two research trips in Asia to gain first-hand insights into how emerging and frontier markets are navigating an increasingly challenging global environment. At the International Monetary Fund Meetings (IMF) in Bangkok, the team participated in around 60 meetings covering 27 emerging and frontier markets. A separate research trip to Malaysia and Thailand provided a deeper look at how two economies in the same region are responding to some of the same global forces.

Across both trips, one theme stood out: competition for global capital is intensifying as countries navigate geopolitical fragmentation, tighter public finances and technological change. How they respond, however, varies considerably from market to market.

Paraguay
Paraguay stands out with the progress it has made through sustained reforms, which have supported its transition to investment-grade status. Strong growth, increasing economic diversification and record foreign direct investment reflect the country’s improving economic fundamentals. The continued development of the local currency bond market is also helping to diversify funding sources and reduce external vulnerabilities.

India
India continues to combine strong economic growth with ongoing fiscal consolidation. However, increasing competition for global capital and its dependence on imported energy present challenges. AI adds another dimension, as the country competes for international investment while also seeking to capture opportunities in areas such as data centers, energy infrastructure and manufacturing.

Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is currently benefiting from its solid economic fundamentals and a rapidly developing domestic capital market. Increasing foreign participation in government bonds and planned improvements to international market access could further expand the country’s investor base. Inflation remains a challenge but improvements in market infrastructure, liquidity and access could strengthen Kazakhstan’s position within the global emerging markets debt universe.

Malaysia

Malaysia has tested and packaged microchips for half a century and is benefiting from the AI-related investment boom. Its central bank attributes about 30% of recent growth to the AI-related chain, while significant data center investment could help the country climb the semiconductor and electronics value chain. The macro backdrop is benign, so we think the ringgit has room to strengthen over a longer horizon. However, fiscal pressures and political uncertainty ahead of the election add to our near-term caution, while bond yields look low and exposed to higher global real rates.

Thailand

Thailand is not part of the semiconductor chain and benefits only indirectly from orders linked to data center buildouts and electrification. While headline export numbers look healthy, many new data centers have little local content and are not driving domestic demand. Political and structural challenges, high household debt and higher global yields further weigh on the outlook. A catalyst for a stronger baht is therefore hard to find, while long bonds look unattractive at current yields.