Jun 19, 2023 1:41:00 PM | LGT Beacon

• The “soft landing” scenario of continued disinflation without a major recession becomes the more likely base case  
• The Federal Reserve’s pause in its rate-hiking campaign is a factor that improves market confidence
• Market breadth starts to tentatively improve, as tech-driven rally trickles down to other sectors and regions 
• Anticipated US monetary policy easing is still not fully priced out and premature in our assessment
• The cumulative tightening of the past 15 months and any further rate hikes might still bite in the coming quarters  
  
  

May 25, 2023 9:00:00 AM | LGT Beacon

• The major economies successfully avoided a recession to date, with forward indicators pointing to resilient demand
• Inflation will continue to decline, but economic resilience will keep it above target levels in the coming months
• Q1 corporate earnings well above expectations in most sectors, in line with stronger-than-expected economy  
• Anticipated US monetary policy easing this year is thus premature, while the ECB will keep hiking interest rates  
• We expect US Congress to reach an agreement on the debt ceiling, limiting duration of potential disruptions
• Tightening credit conditions lead to challenges and decreasing valuations in private markets but also to opportunities

Apr 19, 2023 10:00:00 AM | LGT Beacon

• Equities and credit markets have rebounded since the US bank failures, led by Europe and tech-sector shares

• The authorities' responses have reduced the risk of the banking sector issues spreading to other segments and regions

• The fundamental economic picture has only slightly improved, not as much as implied by the current rally

• Inflation remains too high for central banks to cut rates this year, weakening the main driver of the tech rally

• However, the bearish investors’ position suggests that markets may continue to "climb the wall of worry" regardless

Mar 28, 2023 10:00:00 AM | LGT Beacon

• Equities and especially bond market volatility surges, as US and European bank woes revive macro uncertainty

• Somewhat forgotten safe-haven assets such as gold or the JPY temporarily benefit due to the bank sector turmoil

• Still, the underlying cyclical outlook has slightly improved, as services in the West remain robust and China reopens

• Authorities have swiftly responded to address acute lack of confidence in the banking sector and liquidity issues

• We view today’s banking sector issues as not systemic and are sceptical about the prospect for near-term rate cuts

Feb 23, 2023 9:47:00 AM | LGT Beacon

• Global equities extend gains in February, as investors now expect the US and even Europe to avoid a recession 

• US yield curve shifts higher and US dollar rises on prospect of stronger economy and continued policy tightening 

• Latest US data show that prices in the services sector continue to rise, keeping prospect of hawkish surprises alive 

• Chinese equities retreat after a three-month rally, as geopolitical tensions and domestic policy concerns return